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š¦ Bank of Canada Rate Forecast Update ā October 2025
š¦ Bank of Canada Rate Forecast Update ā October 2025
The Bank of Canada continues its cautious approach to monetary easing as inflation remains above target but shows steady improvement. Analysts project the overnight lending rate to gradually decline through mid to late 2026, reflecting slowing economic growth and stabilizing core inflation.
š Key Highlights:
-
Current Policy Rate (October 2025): 4.25%
-
Projected Rate (End of 2025): 4.00%
-
Projected Rate (Mid-2026): 3.50%
-
Inflation expected to return near the 2% target by late 2026
-
GDP growth forecast remains below 1% through early 2026
š” What This Means for Homeowners & Buyers:
Lower interest rates over the next 12ā18 months could ease borrowing costs, improve mortgage affordability, and support a gradual rebound in housing demand across Ontario and the Niagara Region.
For Fort Erie and Niagara homebuyers, this forecast signals improving conditions for both first-time buyers and move-up purchasers heading into 2026.
#BankOfCanada #InterestRates #MortgageRates #NiagaraRealEstate #FortErieHomes #BarbaraScarlettBroker #ScarlettRealEstateGroup #Century21HeritageHouse #CanadianEconomy #RealEstateMarketUpdate #NiagaraRegion #FortErieLiving #HomeBuyingTips
Thanksgiving at our house. š
Thanksgiving at our house. š
Some years, the table stretches from one side of the house to the other.
This year, it was smallerā
more intimateā
everyone gathered around my dining room table.
But the joy? Still the same. ā¤ļø
I love the prep as much as the meal itselfā
the early morning organization,
being alone in the kitchen,
timing every dish just right,
and calling on Alex when I need a hand.
Adam took care of the star of the show this yearā
the prime ribā
and he did it perfectly.
Thank you @Oliversbutcherandcatering!
By the time everyone arrived,
the house smelled like tradition.
š“ Menu Highlights
Appetizers
ā¢ Shrimp & cocktail sauce
ā¢ Charcuterie board
Dinner
ā¢ Prime rib (prepared by Adam!)
ā¢ Burgundy mushrooms
ā¢ Fresh pumpkin bread
ā¢ Scalloped potatoes
ā¢ Squash, turnips & carrots
Dessert
ā¢ Apple crisp
ā¢ Pecan pie with whipped cream
I truly love the morning hustleā
the cooking, the cleaning,
and the quiet before the company arrives.
Because thatās what Thanksgiving is about for me:
family, food, gratitude,
and the joy found in every small, meaningful detail.
How was your Thanksgiving table this yearābig or small?
š Iād love to hear how you celebrated.
#ThanksgivingWeekend #FamilyTraditions #FortErieLife #NiagaraRegion #HomeIsEverything #BalancedLiving #SimpleJoys #LifeInBalance #JoyInTheJourney #HolidayHosting #CookingWithLove #RealEstateLifestyle #AutumnVibes #GratitudeSeason #TableGatherings
Mortgage Rate Trends ā September 2025
By the end of September 2025, mortgage rates in Canada ā and across Niagara ā showed slight relief after several years of volatility.
- 5-Year Fixed (High Ratio):Ā 3.94%ā4.24%
- 5-Year Variable (High Ratio):Ā 3.79%ā4.85%
- 5-Year Fixed (Uninsurable):Ā 4.29%ā4.59%
- Prime Rate:Ā 4.70%
TheĀ stress testĀ still applies at the higher of 5.25% or contract rate +2%, meaning affordability remains a challenge. However, buyers are regaining confidence as rates stabilize.
Lower borrowing costs are improving demand, particularly among first-time buyers and move-up purchasers in Fort Erie and surrounding communities. Inventory remains high, giving buyers more choice and negotiating power.
If youāre considering buying or refinancing, now is an ideal time to review pre-approvals, as rate holds can protect you from future changes.
Niagara MLSĀ® Market Update ā September 2025
Market data through September 2025 highlights key trends across Niagara. Total sales have moderated, reflecting a more balanced relationship between supply and demand. However, Fort Erie stands out for maintaining consistent activity, particularly in mid-range price segments.
TheĀ MLSĀ® Home Price Index (HPI)Ā continues to align closely with median sale prices, suggesting that the gap between list and sale prices is narrowing. After several months of adjustment, values appear to be stabilizing across most sub-markets.
Sellers are increasingly realistic, adjusting prices to meet buyer expectations. Buyers, in turn, are taking advantage of moderate mortgage rates to re-enter the market.
Locally, detached homes in Fort Erie and Ridgeway remain in steady demand, especially those offering lifestyle features like proximity to Lake Erie, larger lots, and updated interiors. As we move into late fall, well-presented homes priced correctly continue to attract solid interest.
How Offer Timing Impacts Real Estate Negotiations
Real estate negotiations often turn on one detail: time. Consider this example ā a buyer submits an offer on a Fort Erie home for $495,000 with a 48-hour irrevocable. The seller counters at $506,500, valid until 6:00 p.m. the next day. The buyer hesitates, lets the deadline expire, and loses the home when new offers arrive.
Once an irrevocable period expires, the offer is legally dead. This is true even if the buyer later agrees to the sellerās terms. In multiple-offer situations, sellers may receive several new offers once the window closes, leaving the first buyer out of contention.
Deadlines are firm for a reason ā they keep transactions organized and fair. However, itās also important for sellers to be realistic with timing. If an irrevocable is too short, they risk missing qualified buyers who need more time to review. If too long, it may limit flexibility in fast-moving markets.
Buyers and sellers both benefit from working with experienced agents who explain how these clauses function and ensure everyone stays within timelines.
How Long Do You Have to Accept an Offer?
Timing is everything in real estate, and nowhere is that truer than in the offer process. EveryĀ Agreement of Purchase and SaleĀ includes anĀ irrevocable clauseĀ ā a legally binding time limit during which an offer must be accepted.
Once that deadline passes, the offer becomes void, and neither side is obligated to proceed. This clause protects both parties by defining a clear window for negotiation.
Buyers often use short irrevocable times to apply pressure, hoping to block competing offers. For example, an offer with an expiry of 6 p.m. the same day may catch a seller off-guard, leaving little time to consider. In contrast, sellers sometimes set review dates to allow multiple offers to come in, creating fair competition and better outcomes.
For Fort Erie homeowners, understanding this timing helps avoid missed opportunities. A strong offer might slip away simply because the irrevocable time wasnāt managed properly. Likewise, buyers who let deadlines lapse lose their chance to secure the property altogether.
Working closely with your REALTORĀ® ensures that all parties respect timelines and communicate effectively, reducing stress in what can be a fast-moving process.
Why Overpricing Your Home Can Cost You
Itās a common mistake ā setting a price higher than market value to āleave room for negotiation.ā In reality, this approach often backfires. Overpriced homes in Fort Erie and Niagara spend more time on the market and typically sell for less than those priced right from the start.
Buyers today are well-informed. They compare listings, track sales data, and know when a home is mispriced. An inflated list price can make your property invisible to serious buyers who search within realistic parameters.
Local data supports this: Niagaraās average list price sits roughly 27% above its average sale price. That means buyers consistently pay less than what sellers expect. The longer a property sits, the more likely buyers are to assume somethingās wrong ā and that leads to lower offers.
Strategic pricing is about matching demand. In a balanced market, homes priced accurately generate more showings, better exposure, and sometimes multiple offers. Overpricing, on the other hand, leads to missed opportunities and eventual price reductions.
If your home has been listed for more than 30ā45 days without substantial activity, itās time to reassess. Markets move quickly, and a small correction now can lead to a faster, stronger sale later.
Understanding the MLSĀ® Home Price Index (HPI)
When it comes to pricing a home, not all data is equal. Many homeowners focus on average or median prices, but those figures can change dramatically from month to month. TheĀ MLSĀ® Home Price Index (HPI), however, provides a consistent benchmark based on the true market value of homes with specific characteristics.
The HPI evaluates trends using extensive MLSĀ® data and advanced statistical modeling. It identifies what defines a ātypicalā home ā size, age, location, and features ā and tracks how its value evolves. This approach gives both buyers and sellers a realistic snapshot of value in their area.
For sellers in Fort Erie and surrounding Niagara communities, the HPI is invaluable. It helps avoid the common pitfall of overpricing based on emotion or hearsay. It also gives buyers confidence that a listed price reflects current reality, not past market peaks.
For instance, while average prices can be inflated by luxury properties or new builds, the HPI smooths these variations, showing a more accurate local trend. By aligning your price closer to the benchmark, your listing stands out as well-positioned and fair in the eyes of todayās educated buyers.
The HPI is especially useful in transitional markets like 2025, where prices have softened but remain relatively stable compared to last year. Relying on this index helps homeowners make informed decisions that align with true market conditions.
Pricing Your Home to Sell in Fort Erie and Niagara
Setting the right price is the foundation of a successful home sale. Whether youāre in Fort Erie, Ridgeway, or Crystal Beach, pricing too high or too low can impact both timing and final outcome. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) emphasizes that the most reliable measure of value is the MLSĀ® Home Price Index (HPI) ā not the average or median price you might see in headlines.
The HPI tracks how buyers value specific property features over time, using over 15 years of MLSĀ® data to determine what a ātypicalā home in your area is worth. This method offers a true āapples-to-applesā comparison, avoiding the distortion that averages can cause when a few luxury or distressed sales skew the data.
In Niagara, the average list price recently stood at $859,568, about 27% above the average sale price of $676,663. The median list price of $699,999 was just slightly above the median sale price of $699,000. The HPI benchmark came in at $595,800 ā suggesting that many sellers are still overestimating value.
When pricing, sellers typically follow one of three strategies:
- List High and WaitĀ ā Hoping for a top-dollar buyer can lead to extended days on market and eventual price reductions.
- Price at Market ValueĀ ā Basing your price on comparable recent sales is the most balanced approach but requires constant monitoring as values shift.
- Underprice StrategicallyĀ ā Occasionally used to generate multiple offers and sell quickly, but it requires strong demand to succeed.
In todayās market, buyers are cautious and informed. Homes priced within range of the HPI benchmark tend to attract more serious interest and close faster. Before listing, clarify your motivation ā your āwhy.ā If selling is time-sensitive, a realistic price will save you stress and money.
Happy Thanksgiving from The Scarlett Real Estate Group!
As Thanksgiving arrives, itās a perfect time to pause and reflect on the year thatās been ā both in life and in real estate. The fall season in Fort Erie and across Niagara brings a mix of gratitude, change, and reflection. For many families, itās a chance to gather, reset, and think about whatās next ā including where āhomeā fits into the picture.
Over the past year, weāve seen steady evolution in our local real estate market. Interest rates, inventory levels, and buyer confidence have all played a role in shaping a more balanced landscape. Sellers are learning that pricing and presentation matter more than ever, while buyers are realizing that opportunities exist when they remain informed and ready.
At The Scarlett Real Estate Group, Thanksgiving is also about giving thanks for the people behind every transaction ā clients, community partners, and local residents who make Fort Erie such a wonderful place to live and work.
Whether youāre hosting dinner at home, visiting family across town, or simply taking a quiet walk along Lake Erie, I hope you take a moment to enjoy what this region offers ā peace, space, and connection.
From my family to yours, wishing you a warm and happy Thanksgiving filled with gratitude and comfort.
